JUL · ISSUE 29 · July 15, 2026
TODAY'S DATAToday brings the inflation print almost nobody watches
PPI never makes headlines like CPI, but it runs weeks ahead. And today it's expected to cool.
MAY PPI
+1.1%
hottest in years
JUNE PPI (est)
-0.1%
month-over-month
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
6.2%
down from 6.5%
EXPECTED
-0.1%
↓ first producer-side disinflation print in months
June PPI is released today at 08:30 ET. After May's +1.1% jump, consensus sees a monthly drop and a year-over-year easing from 6.5% to 6.2%.
DATA
ZOOM IN6.2%
6.2%
▼ from 6.5% year-over-year (expected)
PPI tends to move before CPI. A cooldown here is tomorrow's inflation easing today.
If the year-over-year rate slips from 6.5% to 6.2%, it's the first sign in months that the price peak is behind us.
- PEAK
- — The highest point of a series before it turns lower.
- CPI
- — Consumer Price Index. The inflation you pay at the store.
QUOTE
TAKEAWAYInflation shows up at the factory first
“PPI is inflation's dress rehearsal: what happens at the factory today reaches the shelf tomorrow.”
When producer costs fall, it takes weeks to reach the final price. That's why PPI is watched.
- PRODUCER
- — The maker or wholesaler, upstream of the consumer.
- PASS-THROUGH
- — How a cost travels up the chain into the final price.
TRAJECTORY
PPI YoYProducer prices peaked in May
Six months up, one month turning. Today we learn if the turn is real.
Year-over-year PPI climbed to 6.5% in May. June (expected) is the first month turning lower.
- PEAK
- — The highest point before a trend changes direction.
- TURN
- — A trend reversing, from rising to falling or the reverse.
WHY IT MATTERS
THREE EFFECTSWhat moves if PPI confirms the cooldown
RATE EXPECTATIONS
Less producer inflation gives the Fed room not to hike again. The bond market prices it in within minutes.
GROWTH STOCKS
Tech and semis breathe when price pressure eases: less risk of higher-for-longer rates.
THE DOLLAR
Clear disinflation tends to soften the dollar, since it lowers the case for the high rates propping it up.
A cool PPI isn't just a headline. It changes what the market expects from the Fed.
- GROWTH
- — Companies valued on future earnings, highly rate-sensitive.
- PRICE IN
- — When the market moves ahead of a data point before it's released.
ANATOMY
WHAT IT MEASURESWhat PPI is made of
Services are two thirds of it and the slowest to fall. That's why disinflation is hard.
PPI isn't a single number: it weights goods and services. Knowing the mix helps you read it.
- STICKY
- — A price slow to fall even as the rest of inflation eases.
- WEIGHT
- — How much each component counts toward the overall index.
WATCHLIST
5 KEY ETFsThe 5 ETFs that react to PPI
| TIP | 108.40 | ▲ +0.1% | Inflation-linked bonds. Rise when the market fears more price pressure. |
| TLT | 89.10 | ▲ +0.3% | Long US Treasury. Rises if PPI cools and rate expectations fall. |
| XLK | 265.30 | ▲ +0.2% | Tech. Breathes easier with less inflation pressure. |
| UUP | 27.85 | ▼ -0.1% | Dollar. Softens if disinflation lowers the case for high rates. |
| GLD | 371.20 | ▲ +0.4% | Gold. Reacts to real rates: less inflation changes the math. |
The print drops at 08:30 ET. These five are the most sensitive to an inflation surprise.
- ETF
- — A listed basket that tracks an index or theme, traded like a stock.
- REAL RATE
- — The interest rate minus inflation: what your money actually earns.
WRAP
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- PPI
- — Producer Price Index: inflation before it reaches the store.
- CPI
- — Consumer Price Index: the inflation you pay.