JUN · ISSUE 27 · June 29, 2026
RISK · ALERTExtreme fear is back in Bitcoin
The crypto fear and greed index prints 13 out of 100. Bitcoin trades below every one of its daily moving averages.
BITCOIN
~60,140
below all averages
FEAR AND GREED
13/100
extreme fear
DAILY RSI
32
stress, not capitulation
THE NUMBER
$60,140
↓ below every daily moving average
Bitcoin hovers near $60,000 with a daily RSI of 32: deep stress without full capitulation. A roughly $10B options expiry adds near-term mechanical risk.
SENTIMENT
ZOOM IN13 out of 100
13
▼ extreme fear · early capitulation zone
It's the market's emotional temperature. At 13, panic is in charge, but panic can sit there for weeks before price reacts.
When almost everyone is selling out of fear, there are few sellers left to scare. That's why extreme fear tends to show up near bottoms, even if no one rings a bell.
- CAPITULATION
- — Panic-driven mass selling that often marks the end of a decline.
- CONTRARIAN
- — Trading against the crowd: buy fear, sell euphoria.
QUOTE
AUTHORITYThe market's oldest rule
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
The most-quoted line from the world's most famous investor describes exactly what an extreme-fear reading captures.
- SENTIMENT
- — The market's aggregate mood, measurable via surveys and indices.
- BOTTOM
- — The level from which an asset stops falling and starts to recover.
TRAJECTORY
8 MONTHSFrom the high to losing $60,000
Almost half the rally given back. Losing $60,000 on volume would open a gap; reclaiming the averages would be the first relief.
Bitcoin came off highs above $100,000 and has given back almost half the rally. The $60,000 line is the psychological level the market watches. Figures are illustrative.
- GAP
- — A price zone with no support where a decline can accelerate.
- VOLUME
- — Amount traded. A breakdown on heavy volume carries more weight.
WHY NOW
THREE SIGNALSThree things behind the extreme fear
BELOW EVERY AVERAGE
Bitcoin trades under all of its daily moving averages. That's the textbook definition of a bearish regime: across every short horizon, the trend points down.
RSI AT 32
The strength gauge is near oversold. It reflects deep stress, but not yet the panic-selling washout that usually marks the end of a decline.
$10B EXPIRY
Bloomberg flags a roughly $10B options expiry. Near that date, market makers adjust hedges and any move can be amplified mechanically.
Fear doesn't appear on its own. Three technical and mechanical ingredients sit behind this reading.
- OVERSOLD
- — An asset that has fallen so far, so fast, that a short-term bounce is likely.
- HEDGE
- — A trade that protects a position against adverse moves.
ANATOMY
WHAT WEIGHSWhat drives the crypto fear index
No single factor rules. Extreme fear shows up when several line up downward at once.
The 13 doesn't come from nowhere: it's a blend of signals. These are the pieces that weigh most in the reading.
- DOMINANCE
- — Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market.
- MOMENTUM
- — The speed and strength of a price move.
WATCHLIST
5 TO WATCHFive ways to track crypto fear
| IBIT | 34.10 | ▼ -4.2% | Spot Bitcoin ETF. A near-direct read on the BTC price. |
| MSTR | 278.40 | ▼ -6.1% | The company holding the most Bitcoin. It amplifies BTC moves. |
| COIN | 208.90 | ▼ -5.3% | The largest US exchange. Revenue falls when volume falls. |
| ETHA | 15.80 | ▼ -5.8% | Ethereum ETF. The second crypto tends to fall more than BTC in fear. |
| BITO | 17.60 | ▼ -4.0% | BTC futures ETF. Another route in, with roll cost. |
You don't need a crypto account to follow the story from the stock market. These five tell it. Levels are illustrative.
- ETF
- — A listed fund that tracks an asset or index and trades like a stock.
- EXCHANGE
- — A platform where crypto is bought and sold.
- SPOT
- — Buying the real asset, not a derivative on it.
WRAP
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- BTC
- — Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
- FEAR AND GREED
- — A 0-100 sentiment index. Below 25 is extreme fear.