JUL · ISSUE 29 · July 16, 2026
SEASONThe season that decides the second half begins
Banks open, TSMC rules. Two weeks of earnings that test valuations sitting at record highs.
OPENS
BANKS
JPM, GS, Citi, BofA
KEY
TSMC
Thursday Jul 16
S&P 500
7,543
a whisker from highs
THE FOCUS
TSMC
→ reports Thursday, the best gauge of AI demand
The big US banks opened the season this week. But the main event is Thursday: TSMC, which builds the chips for Nvidia, Apple and AMD, is the most reliable read on real AI demand.
CONTEXT
ZOOM IN~75%
~75%
of companies typically beat consensus (historical average)
Beating consensus is almost the norm. What moves the stock isn't yesterday's result, it's tomorrow's outlook.
Historically three of four S&P companies beat the estimate. That's why a beat isn't enough: guidance is what matters.
- BEAT
- — When a company reports a result better than the consensus estimate.
- GUIDANCE
- — The forecast a company gives for its coming quarters.
QUOTE
AUTHORITYBeating consensus isn't the hard part
“The market doesn't buy today's beat: it buys tomorrow's guidance.”
Consensus is already in the price. What still needs pricing is next quarter's outlook.
- CONSENSUS
- — The average analyst estimate for a result.
- PRICED IN
- — When the price already reflects what's expected to happen.
TRAJECTORY
S&P 500 EARNINGSExpected earnings keep climbing
Figures illustrate the trend. As long as earnings rise, the index high has something to stand on.
S&P 500 earnings-per-share estimate by quarter. The trend is what holds valuations at record highs.
- EPS
- — Earnings per share: a company's profit split across each share.
- VALUATION
- — The price the market pays for a company's future earnings.
TWO BLOCKS
KNOWN VS PENDINGWhat already reported and what really matters
THE BANKS (DONE)
The economy's pulse
- Net interest margin and provisions: how credit is holding up.
- Trading and investment-banking fees: risk appetite.
- Important, but few surprises: the most-watched sector.
TSMC (THURSDAY)
The AI pulse
- Its orders reveal real chip demand from Nvidia and AMD.
- With 82% of managers long semis, it can't miss.
- Its guidance moves the whole AI chain in a single session.
Banks give the economy's pulse. TSMC gives the AI pulse. The market waits for the second.
- NET INTEREST MARGIN
- — The gap between what a bank pays on deposits and earns on loans.
- AI CHAIN
- — The linked companies that build and sell AI infrastructure.
COMPOSITION
WHERE IT COMES FROMWhere the S&P's earnings come from this quarter
A third of earnings depends on technology. That's why TSMC weighs so heavily on the mood.
Illustrative split of index earnings by sector. Technology weighs more than any other.
- SECTOR
- — A group of companies in the same line of business within the index.
- ENGINE
- — The sector contributing most to total earnings growth.
CALENDAR
REST OF WEEKThe data and earnings still ahead
| WED JUL 15 · 08:30 ET | JUNE PPI + MS/BLACKROCK | High | The producer inflation print and more banks reporting. |
| THU JUL 16 · AMC | TSMC + NETFLIX | High | The AI and streaming tests. TSMC's guidance is the most-watched. |
| FRI JUL 17 · 10:00 ET | MICHIGAN SENTIMENT | Medium | Consumer confidence. Closes the week gauging the household mood. |
Between macro and earnings, three days that can confirm or break the record-high mood.
- PPI
- — Producer Price Index: inflation before it reaches the store.
- JOBLESS CLAIMS
- — New weekly filings for unemployment benefits.
- AMC
- — After Market Close: earnings released after the US close.
WRAP
FOLLOW USKnow what to watch this season now?
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- GUIDANCE
- — The forecast a company gives for its coming quarters.
- BEAT
- — Reporting a result better than the consensus estimate.