JUN · ISSUE 26 · June 24, 2026

TREND

AI isn't software anymore: it's copper and concrete

Goldman puts it plainly: for the first time in 15 years, heavy capital beats light. The boom needs metal, building and power.

HEAVY CAPITAL

wins

1st time in 15 years

AI INPUTS

physical

copper · concrete · MW

THE STORY

shifts

who benefits

THE NUMBER

15

↑ years since heavy capital last beat light

Goldman notes AI is no longer behaving like pure software. Building data centers takes power, metal and construction, and that revives the old economy for the first time in a generation.

DATA

ZOOM IN

15 years

15 years

▲ without physical beating digital · until now

Like discovering the digital gold rush needs very real picks and shovels to keep digging.

A shift that takes 15 years to arrive isn't a one-week fad: it's a cycle turn that moves entire sectors.

CYCLE
A long phase in which one asset type or sector leads the market.
INPUT
A resource needed to produce something: copper, power, cement.

QUOTE

AUTHORITY

AI is an old-economy business

Physical is back: for the first time in 15 years, heavy capital beats light. AI, at bottom, gets paid in copper, concrete and megawatts.
David Kostin · Chief US Equity Strategist · Goldman Sachs

When a big bank's strategists rewrite the story, it pays to hear which sectors they put on the map.

EQUITY
The market for listed company shares.
OLD ECONOMY
Traditional sectors: mining, energy, industry, construction.

TREND

ILLUSTRATIVE

Physical takes the lead again

TIE (physical = light)YEARS BEHINDYEARS BEHINDTODAY · CROSSES UPTODAY · CROSSES UP
20112015201920232026

After 15 years below, heavy capital crosses the line. The AI boom is the lever.

Illustrative path of heavy capital versus light: years behind, now crossing higher.

CROSSOVER
When a series rises past a reference level and changes regime.
REGIME
A market phase with a dominant behavior different from the last.

TWO WORLDS

LIGHT vs HEAVY

Light capital versus heavy capital

LIGHT CAPITAL

The decade that's ending

  • Software, brands, algorithms: scale without factories.
  • Very high margins and little physical asset to maintain.
  • Led for 15 years, but AI demands what it lacks: power and metal.

HEAVY CAPITAL

The one back on the map

  • Copper, power grids, data centers, civil works.
  • Heavy on physical assets, long cycles, high barriers to entry.
  • AI doesn't run without it: every model needs real power and wiring.

Neither good nor bad: two ways of investing that are now swapping the lead role.

MARGIN
The profit left from each dollar of sales.
BARRIER TO ENTRY
How hard it is for a new rival to compete in that business.

X-RAY

WHERE THE MONEY GOES

What an AI data center spends on

POWER AND ELECTRICITY: 35%CHIPS AND SERVERS: 30%BUILDING AND SITE: 20%COOLING: 15%DATA CENTER100%
POWER AND ELECTRICITYMegawatts, substations, grid hookup35%
CHIPS AND SERVERSThe silicon everyone pictures30%
BUILDING AND SITEConcrete, land, structure20%
COOLINGWater, HVAC, copper15%

Two thirds of the cost is physical. That's why AI revives mining, energy and construction.

Illustrative split of building and running a data center: the physical side dominates the bill.

DATA CENTER
A building full of servers where AI is trained and run.
SUBSTATION
A facility that transforms and distributes grid electricity.

WATCHLIST

5 PHYSICAL PLAYS

Five ways to play AI's old economy

COPX- +1.2%Copper miners: the metal that wires every data center.
XLU- +0.5%Utilities. AI is driving up the power demand they supply.
XLI- +0.4%Industrials: machinery, grids and heavy gear for the build-out.
SOXX- +1.0%Semis. Silicon is still in, but no longer the only star.
URA- +0.8%Uranium: a power option to feed all those new megawatts.

Representative of the shift to physical. Not a recommendation: examples of each link in the chain.

ETF
A fund that tracks a sector or theme, traded like a single stock.
UTILITIES
Essential-service companies: electricity, water, gas.

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HEAVY CAPITAL
Investment in physical things: factories, power grids, mines.
MW
Megawatt: a unit of electric power. A data center draws hundreds.

Sources: 📅 23 Jun 2026 · 🏛 Goldman Sachs

Editorial content. Not financial advice.

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