JUN · ISSUE 25 · June 15, 2026
FOMC WEEKThe meeting where nothing changes (and everything does)
The market is sure the Fed holds rates on Wednesday. The real risk lives in the dots.
PROB. NO CHANGE
98-99%
rates at 3.50-3.75%
DECISION
Wed 14:00 ET
+ dot plot + SEP
2026 CUTS
1 or 0?
what the dot plot reveals
THE NUMBER
98-99%
↑ odds the Fed leaves rates on hold
It's the second straight meeting with no change. With the decision priced in, all eyes turn to the dot plot: the chart where each Fed member marks where they see rates ahead.
DATA
ZOOM IN1 cut
1 → 0?
The 2026 cut is on the line
Taking a cut off the calendar is like hiking without hiking: the cost of future money rises in the market's head, and that reprices everything today.
March's dot plot projected 1 cut in 2026. If Wednesday erases it, financial conditions tighten without a hike.
- DOT PLOT
- — Each dot is one Fed member's rate forecast.
- FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
- — How cheap or costly it is to fund: rates, credit and equities together.
QUOTE
AUTHORITYThe market doesn't trade the decision, it trades the dots
“A stable dot plot keeps the delayed-cut trade alive. Higher dots tighten financial conditions with no need to hike.”
The decision is priced in. What still needs pricing is the rate path the dot plot draws.
- PRICED IN
- — When news is already reflected in the current price.
- RATE PATH
- — The future trajectory the market expects for interest rates.
TREND
THE PAUSEFrom cutting to standing still
Three cuts, then the brakes. Wednesday's dot plot decides if the path drops one more step in 2026 or stays flat.
The Fed lowered rates to 3.625% and has held for two meetings. Wednesday says whether one cut is left, or none.
- POLICY RATE
- — The rate the Fed sets, which drags mortgages, credit and savings.
- PAUSE
- — Meetings where the Fed keeps rates unchanged.
CONSEQUENCES
WHAT TO WATCHThree things that hang on the dot plot
LONG BONDS
If the dots rise, the 30Y pushes toward the psychological 5%. If they fall, the long bond breathes and equity multiples ease.
GROWTH AND TECH
Stocks valued on future earnings are the most sensitive. Fewer expected cuts compress their multiple in one move.
DOLLAR AND GOLD
Hawkish dots tend to strengthen the dollar and pressure gold. Dovish dots, the opposite: gold has risen three sessions front-running relief.
On Wednesday, don't watch the decision, read the dots. Three moves come out of them.
- GROWTH
- — Companies valued on future earnings, highly rate-sensitive.
- HAWKISH
- — Hard tone: the Fed leaning toward higher rates for longer.
- DOVISH
- — Soft tone: the Fed leaning toward cutting rates sooner.
THE DAY
WHERE THE RISK ISWhere Wednesday's move comes from
90% of the risk isn't whether they cut. It's what they project and how they tell it.
The decision barely matters because it's priced in. The real risk splits across the dots, the press conference and the consumer print.
- SEP
- — Fed projections: GDP, unemployment, inflation and rates.
- RETAIL SALES
- — The monthly gauge of US consumer spending.
WATCHLIST
5 KEY ETFsFive ETFs that move with the dots
| TLT | ~88 | ▼ ~flat | US 20+ year Treasuries. Falls if dots rise, rises if they fall. The most dot-plot sensitive. |
| IEF | ~95 | ▲ ~flat | 7-10 year Treasuries. Reacts to the belly of the rate path. |
| XLF | ~47 | ▲ +0.3% | US banks. Earn more margin if rates stay higher for longer. |
| SOXX | ~292 | ▼ -0.4% | Semis. Pure growth: fewer expected cuts compress the multiple. |
| GLD | ~385 | ▲ +0.6% | Gold. Up three sessions front-running a softer tone. |
Markets open with the Fed around the corner. These five are the most exposed to what the dot plot says.
- ETF
- — A listed basket that tracks an index or asset.
- MULTIPLE
- — What the market pays per unit of earnings; falls when rates rise.
WRAP
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Daily briefing · Mon-Fri 16:00 ET
- FOMC
- — The Fed committee that decides interest rates.
- DOT PLOT
- — The chart where the Fed marks where it sees rates ahead.