JUN · ISSUE 25 · June 16, 2026
FED · DEBUTWarsh's first dot plot
The rate barely moves. What moves markets is where the Fed pencils in next year's rates.
FED FUNDS
3.50-3.75%
hold expected
HIKE ODDS
~0.6%
CME futures
US 30Y
4.983%
on the edge of 5%
THE FOCUS
DOT PLOT
The map of where the Fed sees rates in 2026 and 2027
Kevin Warsh's first FOMC as chair. The market prices a hold, but fears the new projections wipe out the cuts penciled in for 2026 and leave a clearly restrictive tilt.
DATA
ZOOM IN4.983%
4.983%
▲ one step from 5%, the highest in a decade
If the dot plot lands hawkish, this number breaks 5% and drags equity valuations down, even with oil still cheap.
The 30-year bond is two hundredths from 5%. That level indirectly sets the long mortgages of half the country.
- 30Y
- — The US Treasury 30-year bond. The benchmark for long-dated debt.
- RESTRICTIVE
- — A high-rate stance meant to cool the economy and inflation.
READ
EDITORIALThe debut sets the tone
“The Fed does not need to hike to scare anyone: it just has to draw a future with no cuts. The projections move more than the decision itself.”
A new chair uses the first dot plot to build credibility. That usually means a firmer hand, not a lighter one.
- FORWARD GUIDANCE
- — When the Fed moves markets just by signaling what it will do, without touching the rate.
- CREDIBILITY
- — The market's trust that the central bank will do what it says.
EXPECTATIONS
EVAPORATINGThe cuts the market keeps crossing out
Illustrative path of cut expectations. If the dots confirm zero, the long bond feels it instantly.
Half a year ago several cuts were expected for 2026. Each strong data point has erased them one by one.
- RATE CUT
- — A reduction of the Fed's official interest rate.
- PRICED IN
- — When the market already reflects something it expects to happen.
SCENARIOS
TWO PATHSSoft hold or hard hold: the difference is everything
SOFT HOLD
The market breathes
- The dots keep at least one cut for 2026.
- Warsh's tone sounds balanced, not aggressive.
- The 30-year bond eases back below 5%.
- Stocks pick up the cheap-oil relief again.
HARD HOLD
The bond takes over
- The dots erase every cut for 2026.
- A tilt toward possible later hikes appears.
- The 30Y breaks 5% and pulls stocks down.
- A correction despite the oil disinflation.
The rate stays put in both. What changes is the message, and the market trades the message.
- SEP
- — The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, which includes the dot plot.
- TILT
- — The central bank's lean toward raising or cutting rates ahead.
WEIGHT OF RISK
WHERE TO LOOKWhat really carries tomorrow's session
The variable that can void the optimism
How many cuts are left, if any
First press conference of the new term
Consumer data, 5 hours earlier
Illustrative split of market attention. The long bond takes the focus: watch 5% on the 30Y above all else.
Not all the risk sits in the rate decision. The market's attention is split very unevenly.
- PRESS CONFERENCE
- — The Fed chair's briefing after the rate decision.
- RETAIL SALES
- — Measures how much the US consumer is spending.
CALENDAR
THIS WEEKFour events that move the bond and stocks
| WED JUN 17 · 08:30 ET | MAY RETAIL SALES | Medium | A strong consumer print reinforces the Fed's hawks hours before the FOMC. |
| WED JUN 17 · 14:00 ET | FOMC + DOT PLOT (WARSH DEBUT) | High | Hold expected. The move would come from no-cut dots and the tone of the press conference. |
| THU JUN 18 · 08:30 ET | JOBLESS CLAIMS + HOUSING | Low | Pulled forward by Friday's holiday. Labor trend and the pulse of the housing sector. |
| FRI JUN 19 · US CLOSED | IRAN DEAL SIGNING (GENEVA) + JUNETEENTH | Medium | The signing confirms the oil relief, but the US market is shut for the holiday. |
Between the consumer print, the Fed and the deal signing, the week packs every catalyst into three days.
- FOMC
- — The Fed committee that decides US interest rates.
- JUNETEENTH
- — A US federal holiday on June 19. Wall Street is closed.
- HAWK
- — A Fed member who favors high rates to curb inflation.
CLOSE
FOLLOWReady for Warsh's first FOMC?
If you get why the dot plot matters more than the decision, share it. We break it down live tomorrow.
One carousel a day, Monday to Friday. Tomorrow another headline, another concept.
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Daily briefing · Mon-Fri 16:00 ET
- DOT PLOT
- — The map of where each Fed member sees future rates.
- 30Y
- — The US Treasury 30-year bond.