JUN · ISSUE 26 · June 22, 2026

ZOOM IN

Micron tests the AI-memory frenzy

It reports Wednesday after the close. It's the thermometer for the entire AI semiconductor chain.

EPS CONSENSUS

$19.7

vs $1.91 a year ago

GROSS MARGIN

~81%

record high

HBM 2026

sold out

booked in advance

THE NUMBER

$19.7

↑ earnings per share expected this quarter

Consensus sees earnings near $19.7 per share, against $1.91 in the same quarter last year. The engine is HBM, the high-bandwidth memory that AI chips need, and which Micron has sold out for the whole year.

DATA

THE JUMP

+932%

▲ estimated year-over-year EPS growth

A year ago Micron earned $1.91 per share. This quarter the Street expects ~$19.7. That's what a memory supercycle does when AI pulls it along.

This isn't an improvement, it's a regime change. Earnings per share would multiply roughly tenfold in a year.

SUPERCYCLE: — A long stretch of rising demand and prices in a cyclical sector.
YoY: — Year-over-year: change versus the same quarter last year.

QUOTE

AUTHORITY

Beating consensus isn't the hard part

“The market doesn't buy today's profit, it buys tomorrow's outlook. In semis, guidance weighs more than the print.”

Stacy Rasgon · Senior Semis Analyst · Bernstein Research

Today's beat is already priced. What still needs pricing is the guidance for the next quarter.

BEAT: — Topping the analyst consensus earnings estimate.
GUIDANCE: — The company's own outlook for coming quarters.
CONSENSUS: — The average of estimates from analysts covering the stock.

COMPARISON

EARNINGS PER SHARE

From $1.91 to nearly $20 in a year

The gap between the two tall bars and the first one is the story: AI rewrote the memory business.

Micron itself guides to ~$19.15; the Street expects a touch more. Both numbers dwarf last year.

GUIDANCE: — What the company itself expects to earn.
THE STREET: — Wall Street: the consensus of outside analysts.

TWO READINGS

BULL vs BEAR

Why it can soar or fall even on a beat

WHY IT CAN SOAR

The bull case

HBM sold out for all of 2026: revenue visibility that's rare in semis.
Gross margins near 80%, an all-time high.
If guidance rises, it pulls the whole AI chain up with it.

WHY IT CAN FALL

The bear case

The beat is already priced in: 'buy the rumor, sell the news'.
The stock runs in hot after a big rally; the bar is sky-high.
Any doubt about 2027 or DRAM pricing cools the whole sector.

A huge beat doesn't guarantee the stock rises. These are the two sides of Wednesday's report.

DRAM: — The computer's working memory; Micron's core business.
SELL THE NEWS: — A drop after good data because it was already priced in.

THE BUSINESS

WHERE IT COMES FROM

Where Micron's revenue comes from

HBM / MEMORY FOR AI40%

The segment that's exploding; sold out in 2026.

DRAM (REST)33%

Working memory; classic cyclical business.

NAND (STORAGE)22%

Flash memory; more volatile pricing.

OTHER5%

Specialized products and residual.

Approximate weights to frame the business. The key on Wednesday: how much growth comes from HBM, and whether that pace holds.

Approximate, illustrative split. The growth engine is HBM; the rest is the classic memory business.

NAND: — Flash storage memory (SSDs, phones).
DRAM: — Volatile working memory; wiped when power is off.

WATCHLIST

THE CHAIN

Five names hanging on the report

MU	~145	→ +0.0%	The headliner. Guidance, not the beat, sets the tone for the whole chain.
NVDA	~175	→ +0.0%	Largest HBM buyer. A sold-out HBM confirms its AI-chip demand.
AVGO	~360	→ +0.0%	AI infrastructure: reads the health of data-center spending.
WDC	~95	→ +0.0%	NAND memory rival: shares the pricing cycle with Micron.
SMH	~310	→ +0.0%	Semis ETF: play the whole sector without picking one name.

Rounded reference levels, not today's quote. If the HBM guidance surprises, these move as a block.

ETF: — A listed basket that tracks an index or sector.
CHAIN: — The set of semi companies that depend on one another.
NAND: — Flash storage memory; a business shared with rivals.

WRAP

Watching Micron on Wednesday?

Understand why guidance beats the beat, and you see semis the way a fund's trading desk does.

One carousel a day, Mon-Fri. Tomorrow another story, another concept.

Daily briefing · Mon-Fri 16:00 ET

HBM: — Fast stacked memory for AI chips.
GUIDANCE: — The company's outlook for coming quarters.

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